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Guest Post: Brazil – no credit bubble, but an overstretched consumer nonetheless
By Tony Volpon of Nomura Securities Is Brazil facing a credit bubble? With credit to GDP rapidly rising (from around 25 per cent in 2005 to 47 per cent now) in an environment of rapid demand growth and...
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Brazil credit crisis? No way, says BarCap
There’s been quite a debate this week on Brazilian credit. First Paul Marshall and Amit Rajpal of Marshall Wace, a hedge fund, said Brazil risked “a fully fledged credit crisis”. Then Tony Volpon of...
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Brazilian credit: big threat to growth
Now it’s time for Neil Shearing of Capital Economics to weigh into the debate on the Brazilian credit bubble. On the bubbleometer scale between Paul Marshall and Amit Rajpal of Marshall Wace (Brazil...
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Whither Brazil?
There’s been a lot of debate in beyondbrics around whether Brazil’s economy is blowing bubbles. Certainly the signs of a hot economy are everywhere. Mercer just judged São Paulo the 10th most expensive...
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Brazil’s credit bubble: getting scary
There was quite a debate here on beyondbrics last week about whether or not Brazil has got itself into a credit bubble. On balance, the consensus was that the banking system isn’t heading into a...
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Brazil’s new rules on consumer credit, a damp squib?
Brazil’s central bank has become such an expert at crafting macro-prudential measures and capital controls that these days even some market analysts are struggling to understand them. When called on...
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Overdrafts: Brazil’s expensive addiction
Sick of paying high rates on your overdraft? Well just be grateful you don’t live in Brazil. The overdraft interest rate rose to 188 per cent a year in July – the highest since 1999. But what is more...
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Santander Brazil: canary in a coal mine?
Not so long ago, companies would often attribute their growing profits to the strong performance of their Brazilian unit. Now it seems Brazil is to blame for their losses. Spain’s Santander is due to...
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Brazil: reflating credit-driven growth
The latest weekly survey of market economists by Brazil’s central bank, published on Monday, shows that interest rates are expected to keep falling. Whether you think the central bank is acting for...
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Brazil’s consumers: deeper in debt
More interesting data on Brazil’s credit market on Tuesday: the number of consumers looking for loans fell by 11.2 per cent from March to April and demand for credit during the first four months of the...
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Brazil’s economy: spluttering
A big disappointment from Brazil’s statistics agency on Friday: GDP growth came in far below expectations in the first quarter at 0.8 per cent year on year and just 0.2 per cent over the previous...
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Brazil: another bank, another “accounting irregularity”
When Brazil’s PanAmericano bank came close to collapse in late 2010 following accounting “irregularities”, the central bank swore it was a one-off. And as other smaller banks have run in to...
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Brazilian credit: not pretty
In a world obsessed with the European crisis, few might have noticed that today was an historic moment in the history of Brazilian credit. For the first time, the total stock of Brazilian debt advanced...
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Brazilian banks: big is definitely better
Panic set in overnight (okay, yes we are being a bit melodramatic) when Moody’s announced a downgrade of some of the biggest names in Brazilian banking. Moody’s ratings actions affected the Brazilian...
View ArticleCredit in Brazil: slowing down
Fears of a credit bubble in Brazil have been receding recently and figures published on Thursday give further reason to breath easy. Serasa Experian, a credit analysis company, said its consumer credit...
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The battle of Brazilian interest rates
Brazil’s government, retailers and banks are all interested in reviving the jaded Brazilian consumer, the driver of economic growth in recent years. But interest rates in the country are phenomenally...
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Banco do Brasil: borrower’s delight
On the homepage of Banco do Brasil, Brazil’s largest bank, you can take out a loan to buy a car, renovate your house or buy electronics and home appliances. Indeed, never before in Brazil has it been...
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Brazil credit boom: the end is NOT near
If there is one thing that investors are worried about when it comes to Brazil, it is how far the country’s consumer credit boom of the past decade still has to run. Not too much further, say critics,...
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Brazilian banks: credit for all!!
Earlier this week, Banco do Brasil called a relative of mine to offer her an “opportunity to change her life” – a payroll loan. This is a form of credit whose repayments are cut directly from your pay...
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Brazil: the next housing bubble?
It’s one of those questions guaranteed to get everyone from homeowners to government officials hot and bothered: is there a real estate bubble in Brazil? With memories still fresh of the housing market...
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